百盛棋牌

2020年股市预测 偏向中长期实体经济

来源: | 2019-01-06 09:49:20

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猜想一:主要指数易涨难跌,核心上行动力源自市场风险偏好的提升。
一方面,从盈利角度看,当前PMI等领先指标有改善迹象,补库存周期逐步开启,短期经济指标有望企稳回升,对应上市公司盈利增长中枢有小幅上行潜力。另一方面,从估值角度看,预计无风险利率将维持缓慢下行走势,而信用环境修复和资本市场改革深化带来的风险溢价下降可能成为市场估值整体抬升的主要力量。

猜想二:市场热点轮动,各大板块雨露均沾。
我们预测2020年市场风格会更趋多元化,日新月异的科技、稳健成长的消费、底部回暖的周期、绝对价值的金融等四大板块都有机会演绎各自的精彩,其背后的催化剂分别来自全球科技周期和国产替代周期的共振、经济高质量发展阶段下消费贡献率的持续提升、逆周期调控政策的阶段性强化、低风险资金的配置需求。

猜想三:行业龙头集聚效应有所减退,二三线品种成为资金新宠。
过去3年,A股主要指数表现虽不尽如人意,但核心资产牛市却演绎得淋漓尽致。之所以形成如此巨大反差,笔者认为与下面两个因素密切相关:一是经济增速下降叠加存量经济结构调整,导致“马太效应”频出,各行各业集中度提升,龙头企业竞争优势越发显著。二是金融去杠杆持续推进,股市资金陷入存量甚至减量博弈的困局,促使投资者风险偏好进一步收敛,从而扎堆买入核心资产。

展望2020年,预计投资者持仓偏好将从一线龙头逐步向二三线优质标的扩散,主要是基于以下原因:
一是科技创新和先进制造引领的经济增长新引擎正在悄然崛起,行业景气的高企也必然伴随着产业结构的优化,科技投资主线下的优质标的将层出不穷。

二是国家在不断出台针对中小企业和民营企业的扶持政策,包括财税和融资等各方面的扶持,未来信用环境的进一步改善将有助于中小企业缩小对龙头企业的竞争劣势。三是股市赚钱效应带来交易活跃度提升,金融改革红利的释放吸引新增资金入场,二三线优质标的将发挥其承接资金外溢的功能。

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